Anthropic IPO Valuation Faces Pressure

Institutional backers are pressing Anthropic to lower the $1.5 trillion valuation it targeted for an IPO, and one suggested pricing closer to $1 trillion, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. The company had aimed to raise up to $100 billion around the week before Thanksgiving, which would exceed SpaceX’s June listing as the largest offering ever. Anthropic executives and advisers plan to meet in the coming days to review the deal; backers are weighing a lower price range or a delay. The company has enough cash to reduce the raise or wait.

Potential investors doubt Anthropic can complete its roadshow the week after next and list in November, four people familiar with discussions told Reuters. The roadshow was expected to start the week of Nov. 9, with pricing the following week. Some investors now see $1.5 trillion as the upper end of expectations and say a larger discount may be needed because of quarterly losses and commitments to AI infrastructure partners. Anthropic could postpone if pressure on AI-related assets continues, sources told Reuters. The company declined to comment. Investors are also waiting for October revenue, left blank in the updated S-1, to judge whether growth recovered from a slowdown.

The valuation had already fallen from about $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion after Anthropic told investors in October that third-quarter revenue grew 45% from the second quarter, compared with more than doubling in the preceding quarter. Tech stocks had their sharpest selloff in a year after Tuesday’s midterms; the Journal linked the retreat to AI-skeptical lawmakers and local data center moratoriums, while Reuters cited ballot efforts in many states to limit data center development. Meta president Dina Powell McCormick said Wednesday that building data centers would be “harder following the election results.”

Prediction market Polymarket put the odds of an Anthropic IPO by Nov. 30 at 58%, down from 84%; the odds by Dec. 31 fell to 73% from 90%. The Journal reported that OpenAI had secured $11 billion of the $30 billion it targeted in its latest funding round, at an adjusted $1.25 trillion valuation. An amended filing put Anthropic’s committed spending at $895.4 billion, with $69.8 billion due over the next 12 months; the article said total commitments exceed $1 trillion.

Anthropic has placed 5% of its fully diluted stock in its Public Benefit Fund, initially managed by CEO Dario Amodei, his sister Daniela, Jack Clark and Buddy Shah. The board may add up to another 2% each time the stock rises 50%. Co-founders have pledged 80% of their personal equity to charity. An employee donation-matching program caused a $2.0 billion non-cash charge in the third quarter, one of two items that pushed Anthropic back to an operating loss. Seven co-founders’ single Class F share carries 50.1% of the vote, while public shareholders can never hold more than 49.9%; the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a majority of the board.

Institutional backers are pressing Anthropic to lower the $1.5 trillion valuation it targeted for an IPO, and one suggested pricing closer to $1 trillion, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. The company had aimed to raise up to $100 billion around the week before Thanksgiving, which would exceed SpaceX’s June listing as the largest offering ever. Anthropic executives and advisers plan to meet in the coming days to review the deal; backers are weighing a lower price range or a delay. The company has enough cash to reduce the raise or wait.

Potential investors doubt Anthropic can complete its roadshow the week after next and list in November, four people familiar with discussions told Reuters. The roadshow was expected to start the week of Nov. 9, with pricing the following week. Some investors now see $1.5 trillion as the upper end of expectations and say a larger discount may be needed because of quarterly losses and commitments to AI infrastructure partners. Anthropic could postpone if pressure on AI-related assets continues, sources told Reuters. The company declined to comment. Investors are also waiting for October revenue, left blank in the updated S-1, to judge whether growth recovered from a slowdown.

The valuation had already fallen from about $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion after Anthropic told investors in October that third-quarter revenue grew 45% from the second quarter, compared with more than doubling in the preceding quarter. Tech stocks had their sharpest selloff in a year after Tuesday’s midterms; the Journal linked the retreat to AI-skeptical lawmakers and local data center moratoriums, while Reuters cited ballot efforts in many states to limit data center development. Meta president Dina Powell McCormick said Wednesday that building data centers would be “harder following the election results.”

Prediction market Polymarket put the odds of an Anthropic IPO by Nov. 30 at 58%, down from 84%; the odds by Dec. 31 fell to 73% from 90%. The Journal reported that OpenAI had secured $11 billion of the $30 billion it targeted in its latest funding round, at an adjusted $1.25 trillion valuation. An amended filing put Anthropic’s committed spending at $895.4 billion, with $69.8 billion due over the next 12 months; the article said total commitments exceed $1 trillion.

Anthropic has placed 5% of its fully diluted stock in its Public Benefit Fund, initially managed by CEO Dario Amodei, his sister Daniela, Jack Clark and Buddy Shah. The board may add up to another 2% each time the stock rises 50%. Co-founders have pledged 80% of their personal equity to charity. An employee donation-matching program caused a $2.0 billion non-cash charge in the third quarter, one of two items that pushed Anthropic back to an operating loss. Seven co-founders’ single Class F share carries 50.1% of the vote, while public shareholders can never hold more than 49.9%; the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a majority of the board.