Scioto Analysis, a Columbus-based public policy research firm, estimated that data-center growth could add $16 billion to Ohio’s statewide electricity costs from 2027 through 2034 under existing policies. The estimate spans eight years and does not mean households and businesses will see $16 billion added to their electric bills. Scioto based its calculation on a national study of how rising electricity demand could affect power-system costs, applying one projected increase to Ohio electricity-sales data and extending it through 2034.

The national study examined added demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining through 2030. It projected average electricity costs would rise between 5.9% in a low-demand scenario and 29% in a high-demand scenario, compared with a future without that extra demand. Scioto selected the middle scenario, a 16% increase. Under that scenario, the study estimated average energy costs of $30.10 per megawatt-hour in 2030, compared with $25.90 without the additional demand; one megawatt-hour equals 1,000 kilowatt-hours. These are modeled energy-system costs, not rates Ohio utilities would charge. Customer bills also include transmission, distribution and other charges, so a 16% increase in modeled system costs does not automatically mean a 16% increase in retail bills.

Scioto used Ohio retail electricity sales and revenue data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, covering residential, commercial, industrial and other customers, and applied the national study’s 16% estimate to calculate the projected $16 billion burden. The national study included cryptocurrency mining, while Scioto’s analysis focused on Ohio data centers. The report describes this method but does not give a complete calculation showing how the national energy-cost estimate translates into the projected cost for Ohio retail customers. It also does not establish how much of the total would be paid by households versus businesses and other customers.

The national research modeled conditions only through 2030, while Scioto extended its estimate four years to 2034. The firm assumed the 16% increase would build at a constant pace from 2023 through 2030, then continue at the same annual pace through 2034; the national study did not model those final four years. The extension accounts for half of the eight-year projection. Scioto disclosed the assumptions, but its report does not list every annual Ohio sales or revenue figure or provide the full year-by-year calculation, so readers cannot independently reproduce the $16 billion estimate from the published figures alone. That limitation does not establish that the calculation is wrong or that supporting calculations do not exist.

Scioto also modeled policy alternatives involving behind-the-meter generation, where data centers get electricity from on-site or dedicated facilities rather than relying entirely on the broader grid. The report considered requiring that arrangement for new facilities. How much electricity data centers draw from the grid and how costs are allocated could affect what customers ultimately pay. The $16 billion remains a statewide projection based on Scioto’s assumptions.

Scioto Analysis, a Columbus-based public policy research firm, estimated that data-center growth could add $16 billion to Ohio’s statewide electricity costs from 2027 through 2034 under existing policies. The estimate spans eight years and does not mean households and businesses will see $16 billion added to their electric bills. Scioto based its calculation on a national study of how rising electricity demand could affect power-system costs, applying one projected increase to Ohio electricity-sales data and extending it through 2034.

The national study examined added demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining through 2030. It projected average electricity costs would rise between 5.9% in a low-demand scenario and 29% in a high-demand scenario, compared with a future without that extra demand. Scioto selected the middle scenario, a 16% increase. Under that scenario, the study estimated average energy costs of $30.10 per megawatt-hour in 2030, compared with $25.90 without the additional demand; one megawatt-hour equals 1,000 kilowatt-hours. These are modeled energy-system costs, not rates Ohio utilities would charge. Customer bills also include transmission, distribution and other charges, so a 16% increase in modeled system costs does not automatically mean a 16% increase in retail bills.

Scioto used Ohio retail electricity sales and revenue data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, covering residential, commercial, industrial and other customers, and applied the national study’s 16% estimate to calculate the projected $16 billion burden. The national study included cryptocurrency mining, while Scioto’s analysis focused on Ohio data centers. The report describes this method but does not give a complete calculation showing how the national energy-cost estimate translates into the projected cost for Ohio retail customers. It also does not establish how much of the total would be paid by households versus businesses and other customers.

The national research modeled conditions only through 2030, while Scioto extended its estimate four years to 2034. The firm assumed the 16% increase would build at a constant pace from 2023 through 2030, then continue at the same annual pace through 2034; the national study did not model those final four years. The extension accounts for half of the eight-year projection. Scioto disclosed the assumptions, but its report does not list every annual Ohio sales or revenue figure or provide the full year-by-year calculation, so readers cannot independently reproduce the $16 billion estimate from the published figures alone. That limitation does not establish that the calculation is wrong or that supporting calculations do not exist.

Scioto also modeled policy alternatives involving behind-the-meter generation, where data centers get electricity from on-site or dedicated facilities rather than relying entirely on the broader grid. The report considered requiring that arrangement for new facilities. How much electricity data centers draw from the grid and how costs are allocated could affect what customers ultimately pay. The $16 billion remains a statewide projection based on Scioto’s assumptions.